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【Living Abundantly】Risk Management

2018-12-16 4,238 Y133 Course - Living Abundantly

Last time, I spoke about the responsibilities of management: what to do, how to do it, to what extent, and when to do it. The true principles always simplify complex problems. Today, understand that a good teacher makes complex issues easily understandable. If you don't understand something in class, it doesn't mean anything. From today onwards, don't just listen; learn. As I speak today, contemplate and study.

If you're making a plan for 2019, you must ask: What will you do, how will you do it, and why do it? What will I do? What are the key parameters? Most importantly, it is risk management. If you're involved in property management or investment, and you don't understand, then learn.

If you don't know what risk is, that's the biggest risk in risk management. Don't be muddle-headed. As Christians, we must be clear-headed.

Risk Management is Particularly Important

Investment involves risk, and doing business involves risk. Risk is crucial. Someone invested two hundred thousand, and I asked him what he would do if he lost it. His reaction was, It won't happen. Why wouldn't it? Any investment could result in a loss. A clear-headed person understands the risks and rewards of an investment, and decides whether to take the risk for the reward. Business ventures have risks and rewards—this is vital.

When buying a house, even when prices in Beijing are falling and everyone is rushing to buy, do you think it through? Risks must be managed. What is risk management? It is understanding the extent of the risk and how to handle it.

For example, when you're driving on the road, the risk is an accident. How do you manage the risk of driving? You need to know when it's dangerous and when it's not. If someone has a sudden lapse while driving, they can't drive. However, if someone is alert but deliberately violates traffic rules and has an accident, they're asking for it. When entering a main road from a side road, you need to be careful, look carefully, and then step on the gas.

Some time ago, I drove to another city. Being unfamiliar with the city, I carefully observed the road signs. Being inattentive on the road could easily lead to an accident. I visited these cities recently and didn't get a single ticket, while my friend got six in just a few days of driving. Your mind must be active. You must think, know the dangers, and manage them.

If we manage risks well, accidents are rare. We must learn risk management. If you understand risk, it's hard to be deceived. Wanting to take advantage makes you susceptible to scams. There are people who specifically target the elderly, called Happy Old Age, swindling their money because the elderly only think about returns, not risks.

If someone tells you, Give me ten thousand now, and you'll get twenty-four thousand by the end of the year, it sounds good. But wouldn't you think? That return rate is better than Buffett's; it must be a scam. Everything has risks, and there's no such thing as something for nothing.

Need to Understand Risks

Understanding risk is crucial. Some people don't understand risk and pass it off to others. How can you shift the risk to someone else? How do you save costs for a company? You must manage risks. There's no such thing as zero risk. If you work in a company, you must always be aware of risk management.

For example, the network might crash. Computers operate 99% of the time, meaning they're unusable for three days a year. If you want to increase it to 99.9%, meaning it's unusable for half a day a year, how do you operate? Buy another computer—that's the cost of addressing the risk. If you want to increase it to 99.99%, meaning only half an hour of downtime per year, the cost is even higher. It depends on the company's needs. For Taobao, 99% is unacceptable; they can't tolerate downtime on Double Eleven.

Risk has a cost. To transfer risk, you pay a price. The extent to which you reduce risk determines how much you pay. Why buy insurance? When I crash, someone pays for the repairs. Some say companies should insure their computers, so the insurance company compensates in case of an accident. If a company has a thousand computers and each insurance policy costs two thousand, that's two million in insurance fees, which could buy another thousand computers. It's interesting: better to buy more computers or insure the existing ones? You need to ponder.

Risk Management Means Understanding Things Clearly

Risk management encourages everyone to understand things clearly, using the understanding to its fullest extent. Whether driving on the road, understanding the risks of driving, investing, understanding the risks of investment, or doing business, understanding the risks of doing business, then conducting an in-depth assessment of the risk, you'll know whether to proceed. So, management is deciding what to do, how to do it, and to what extent—that's all management.

Fear Arises from Lack of Understanding

Deciding what to do is based on risk assessment. Risk management is also the management of fear. Fear arises from a lack of understanding. A person is afraid because of ignorance. Knowing dispels fear. So, I encourage the brothers and sisters to start learning practically, and through practice, you'll understand and won't shift hypothetical problems to costly solutions involving money. Fear and risk are two important things to manage. But fear arises when we lack understanding, and risk becomes a risk when we don't understand it. Managing risk well reduces costs and significantly increases returns. This is a crucial concept.

Conclusion

Understand the essence of things. When we do things, we know whether we should do them, and what the risks are after doing them. Don't act impulsively. Learn to recognize God in your understanding, recognize risk in your understanding, recognize the essence, and then decide what to do, how to do it, and to what extent. This is an overview of risk management. May God bless everyone!

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上次讲管理的责任,做什么,怎么做,做到什么程度,什么时候做。真正的规律,都是把很复杂的问题变得简单。今天要知道,好的老师会把很复杂的问题讲得很浅显。如果你上课没听懂,不代表什么。从今天开始,不要单靠听,要学。今天我讲,大家也要揣摩,学习。 如果做一个2019年的计划,你要做什么,怎么做,为什么要做。我要做什么,重要的几个参数是什么,最重要的是风险管理。如果你要搞房地产管理,投资理财,如果你不了解,就学。 风险管理,如果你不知道什么是风险,那是最大的风险。不要糊里糊涂的人,基督徒要做头脑清醒的人。 投资有风险,做生意有风险,风险很重要。有人投资二十万,我问他,赔了怎么办。对方反应,不会吧。怎么不会呢?任何的投资都可能会赔。头脑清醒的人,会清楚了解投资的风险和回报是什么,要不要冒这个风险来得到这个回报。做生意有风险有回报,很重要。 买房子,北京房价都掉了,别人抢你也抢,有想清楚吗?风险必须管理。什么是风险管理?必须了解风险的大小,了解如何处理这些风险。

例如,你驾车在路上跑,风险是出意外。如何管理驾车的风险呢?你要知道什么时候是危险的,什么时候是不危险的。如果有的人驾车突然断片了,那没法驾车。但如果有人很清醒,却故意违背交通规则出了意外,那是自找的。小路出大路是需要注意的,一定要看清楚,然后踩满油。 我前一段时间开车到另一个城市,不熟悉的城市,我就很小心看路上的标志。如果在路上很不注意,就容易出意外。前段时间我去了这些城市,一张罚单都没中,而我的朋友开了几天车中了六张罚单。人的脑袋一定要动起来,要思考,要知道有哪些危险,管理这些危险。 如果我们会管理风险,意外就很少发生。一定要学习风险管理。要了解风险,你要被骗是很难的。想要占便宜,就容易被骗。有一群人特别喜欢骗老人家,叫做“老妈乐”,专骗老人家的钱,就是因为老人家只想着回报,不知道风险。 如果有人告诉你,现在给我一万块钱,年底能拿到两万四,听起来很不错啊。但你不会想想啊!这回报率比巴菲特还厉害,肯定是骗子。什么事都有风险,哪有没有代价的事情。

风险的了解是非常重要的,有的人对风险不了解,就把风险全推给别人。你如果把风向转嫁给别人,怎么可能呢?如何给企业节约成本?必须管理风险。根本没有零风险这回事。如果你在企业里做工,什么时候都要有风险管理这根弦。 举个例子,网络会宕机,电脑99%的时间可以运行,即一年有三天不能用。如果想要提高到99.9%,即一年有半天不能用。为了这个0.9%你要提高一倍的代价,如何操作,再买一台电脑,这是解决风险的成本。如果我想提升到99.99%,即一年只能有半个小时的宕机,成本就更高了。这是看企业的需求的,如果是淘宝,绝对不能容忍99%,双十一双十二怎么能容忍宕机。 风险是有代价的,要风险转移你要付代价的,降低风险降低到什么程度,决定了你要付多少代价。为什么要买保险?当我撞车的时候,有人为我付修车费。有人说,企业都给电脑买上保险,如果发生意外,保险公司会赔。企业里面有一千台电脑,两千块钱一个保险,那么要付上两百万的保险费,而这两百万又可以买一千台电脑。这很有意思,到底是多买几台电脑呢?还是给现有的电脑买保险呢?需要琢磨。

风险管理是鼓励大家把事物认识清楚,把悟性用到极致开始了解。无论是驾车在路上要了解驾车的风险,投资理财要了解投资的风险,做生意要了解做生意的风险,然后去对这个风险进行一个深入的评估,然后就知道我们到底要不要做。所以管理这件事是决定做什么,怎么做,做到什么程度,这都叫做管理。

决定做什么凭着风险的评估,其实风险管理其实也是对惧怕的管理,惧怕是产生于对事物的不了解。一个人惧怕是因为无知,知道的不怕,所以我鼓励弟兄姐妹们开始学习动手,动手多了就知道是怎么回事,就不会把假设的那种问题转嫁给付代价的那种方式,钱买的那种方式。惧怕和风险是两个重要的需要管理的东西,但我们对东西不够认识就产生惧怕,当我们对风险不够了解就成为风险,那把风险管理管理好,成本就会降低,回报就会大幅度的回升,这个是一个非常重要的观念。

要对事物的本质了解,在我们做事情的时候就知道到底该不该干,干完了之后风险是什么,做什么事情不要拍脑袋,要学会在悟性上认识神,在悟性上认识风险,认识本质,然后就决定做什么,怎么做,做到什么程度,这就是对风险管理的一个概括,愿神祝福大家!
王勇
Risks always exist. We must recognize risks, do a good job of risk management, and then decide what to do, to what extent, and how to do it. Only in this way can we get returns.